Maximum Likelihood Recursive Identification for the Multivariate Equation-Error Autoregressive Moving Average Systems Using the Data Filtering

Maximum Likelihood Identification of Gaussian Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimation in First-Order Autoregressive Moving Average Models with some Non-Normal Residuals

When modeling time series data using autoregressive-moving average processes, it is a common practice to presume that the residuals are normally distributed. However, sometimes we encounter non-normal residuals and asymmetry of data marginal distribution. Despite widespread use of pure autoregressive processes for modeling non-normal time series, the autoregressive-moving average models have le...

Change Point Estimation of the Stationary State in Auto Regressive Moving Average Models, Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Singular Value Decomposition-based Filtering

In this paper, for the first time, the subject of change point estimation has been utilized in the stationary state of auto regressive moving average (ARMA) (1, 1). In the monitoring phase, in case the features of the question pursue a time series, i.e., ARMA(1,1), on the basis of the maximum likelihood technique, an approach will be developed for the estimation of the stationary state’s change...

Testing for Autocorrelation in the Autoregressive Moving Average Error Model

Failure to allow for autocorrelation of the disturbances in a regression model can lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates, particularly if the model is autoregressive. While consistent estimation methods are available which allow for autocorrelation, estimation is usually much easier when there is some assurance that autocorrelation is absent. In pursuit of such assurance the prese...

Kalman filtering & colored noises: the (autoregressive) moving-average case

The Kalman filter is a well-known and efficient recursive algorithm that estimates the state of a dynamic system from a series of indirect and noisy observations of this state. Its applications range from signal processing to machine learning, through speech processing or computer vision. The underlying model usually assumes white noises. Extensions to colored autoregressive (AR) noise model ar...